Confounding the polls, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now on course to extend his rule into a third decade
In the lead-up to Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday, there seemed to be good grounds to believe that voters were about to turn their back on Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s authoritarian brand of nationalism. His assumption of quasi-monarchical presidential powers in 2018 had succeeded in uniting a perennially divided opposition against him. Polls suggested a close race, but placed the president’s main rival for power, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, significantly ahead. Requiring a vote above 50% to win outright and avoid a runoff, Mr Kılıçdaroğlu’s declared aspiration was to “finish it in the first round”.
That optimism has turned out to be sadly misplaced. As it transpired, it was Mr Erdoğan who almost won at the first time of asking, winning over 49% of votes to Mr Kılıçdaroğlu’s 45%. The coalition led by the president’s Justice and Development party (AKP) is also set to win a surprise majority in the Grand National Assembly. That outcome will stymie opposition attempts to restore parliamentary democracy to Turkey, irrespective of the result of the presidential runoff in a fortnight’s time.
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