Before the end of the current lockdown on April 14th, a crucial decision needs must be taken: Whether to extend it nation-wide without any change, or lift it partially and in phases, but with conditions on the assembly and movement of people.
Though Orissa on Thursday extended the lockdown till the month-end, the Center will take a call in the next couple of days after consulting chief ministers. The sweep of the pandemic was still under control, with less than 6,000 cases and nearly 170 fatalities till Thursday.
But no one should lower the guard as yet. The release of Rs 15,000 crores to the States to fight the pandemic was welcome, but the straitened finances of both the Centre and the States are a cause of concern.
The RBI hinted at the growing concern, admitting that post-pandemic the economic scenario had ‘drastically altered.’ Projecting a growth of five per cent for 2019-20 and 5.5 for the current fiscal now appears challenging. A foreign rating agency has lowered the growth for the current fiscal to a little over two per cent.
Growing concerns about the economy reinforce the need to re-start the economic engine at the end of the current lockdown. More than half of the economy is now shut down, even the digital economy has taken a huge hit. India cannot afford to continue the economic shutdown any longer. With strict precautions in place, key sections of the economy need to be given the green signal on April 14.
Maybe as Rahul Bajaj suggested a few days earlier, people of a vulnerable age can be asked to remain in self isolation. Again, ban on the assembly of four or more people can be imposed to facilitate continued ‘social distancing’. Also, hot spots reporting a large number of cases can remain sealed off.
But the economic engine must be revived to replenish key supplies as also to provide succour to large sections whose livelihoods were lost due to the lockdown. It is a difficult decision to make, but livelihood concerns cannot be easily brushed aside.
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